World is Locked into ~1.5°C Warming & Risks Are Rising

Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate NormalWashington - As the planet warms further, heatwaves and other weather extremes that today occur once in hundreds of years, if ever, would become the “new climate normal”, creating a world of increased risks and instability. The consequences for development would be severe as crop yields decline, water resources shift, sea levels rise, and the livelihoods of millions of people are put at risk, according to a new scientific report released on November 23 by the World Bank Group.

Climate change impacts such as extreme heat events may now be unavoidable because the Earth’s atmospheric system is locked into warming close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, the report said. Even very ambitious mitigation action taken today will not change this, it said.

“Today’s report confirms what scientists have been saying – past emissions have set an unavoidable course to warming over the next two decades, which will affect the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people the most,” said Jim Yong Kim, President of the World Bank Group. “We’re already seeing record-breaking temperatures occurring more frequently, rainfall increasing in intensity in some places, and drought-prone regions like the Mediterranean becoming drier.”

“These changes make it more difficult to reduce poverty and put in jeopardy the livelihoods of millions of people,” Kim said. “They also have serious consequences for development budgets, and for institutions like the World Bank Group, where our investments, support and advice must now also build resilience and help affected populations adapt.”

Dramatic climate changes and weather extremes are already affecting people around the world, damaging crops and coastlines, and putting water security at risk, according to the report, Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal”. Many of the worst projected climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming below 2°C, the report said.

“The good news is that we can take action that reduces the rate of climate change and promotes economic growth, ultimately stopping our journey down this dangerous path,” Kim said. “World leaders and policy makers should embrace affordable solutions like carbon pricing and policy choices that shift investment to clean public transport, cleaner energy and more energy efficient factories, buildings and appliances.”

Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal is an analysis of likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming above pre-industrial levels on agricultural production, water resources, ecosystem services, and coastal vulnerability across Latin-America and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia. It builds on a 2012 World Bank report, which concluded the world would warm by 4 degrees Celsius[1] above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century if we did not take concerted action immediately.

Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal

The report, prepared for the World Bank Group by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics (PIK), reveals how rising global temperatures are increasingly threatening the health and livelihoods of the most vulnerable populations, crucially magnifying problems each region is struggling with today.

A common threat across the three regions is the risks posed by heat extremes.  State‐of‐the‐art climate modeling shows that “highly unusual” heat extremes, similar to the heatwaves experienced in the U.S. in 2012, and Russia and Central Asia in 2010, increase rapidly under a 4°C emissions pathway.

It also reveals that the risks of reduced crop yields and production losses for the regions studied increase significantly above 1.5°C to 2°C warming. It notes that declines in agricultural productivity will also have impacts outside core producer regions, with strong repercussions on food security, and may negatively affect economic growth and development, social stability and well‐being.